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- WLFI’s $30B Debut Shakes Up the Market
WLFI’s $30B Debut Shakes Up the Market
PLUS: HBAR Short Setup
Welcome back to The Warmup.
World Liberty Financial’s token generation event kicks off today, one of the most anticipated launches of the year.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
WLFI Launches With $30B+ Valuation
HBAR Short Setup
Arthur Hayes Predicts 126x Upside for HYPE
What We’re Watching
Calendar
Market: Bitcoin is holding steady above $109K while Ethereum and Solana lag, showing weakness. Equities slipped across the board, but gold is shining with a strong 2% move higher as volatility ticks up.
WLFI Launches With $30B+ Valuation
What’s going on:
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trump-backed DeFi project, has officially begun trading on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, and Gate.
WLFI opened above $0.30, giving it a fully diluted valuation over $30B. At launch, 24.67B tokens (nearly a quarter of the 100B supply) are circulating, including ecosystem allocations, Alt5 Sigma’s treasury stake, and liquidity/marketing reserves.
A day-one unlock released 20% of presale tokens, with early investors at $0.015 seeing potential 20x paper returns. Derivatives activity surged into the debut, with perpetuals volume up 400% and open interest at $760M.
What it means:
WLFI’s debut puts it in the same market cap tier as Sui, Dogecoin, and Tron, instantly positioning it among crypto’s largest assets.
The structure: limited float, high institutional backing, and Trump family branding sets the stage for volatile early trading.
With USD1, its fully reserved stablecoin, already at a $2.6B market cap and expanding to Solana, WLFI enters the market as both a governance token and a political-fueled experiment in tying real-world finance to onchain rails.
HBAR Short Setup
What’s going on:
HBAR is breaking down from daily support with multiple confluences lining up: rejection at the 1D 12 EMA, pressure below the 1D QVWAP and YVWAP, and a failed attempt to reclaim resistance.
The chart is showing weakness, setting up a potential short opportunity.
Key levels we’re watching:
Entry: Market price around $0.2165
DCA Level: $0.2297 (50%)
Stop Loss: Hard stop at $0.2436
Final Target: $0.1221
Directional Bias: Bearish
Momentum is fading, and unless HBAR reclaims $0.24 with strength, the path of least resistance points lower.
What we’re waiting for:
Breakdown confirmation below $0.2170 to accelerate downside
Failed retests of broken support turning into resistance
Volume confirmation aligning with the move
This setup offers strong downside potential, but requires tight stop management around the $0.2436 invalidation level.
Arthur Hayes Predicts 126x Upside for HYPE
What’s going on:
Arthur Hayes (the BitMEX co-founder and now CIO at Maelstrom) believes Hyperliquid’s token has the potential to soar 126x.
In his latest blog, Hayes lays out a valuation model where stablecoins hit $10 trillion by 2028, and Hyperliquid captures Binance-level trading activity.
With fees around 0.03%, that could mean $258B in annual revenues. Discount that back, and you get a present value of ~$5.16T, compared to HYPE’s current $41B FDV.
In Hayes’s math, HYPE could become a “decentralized Binance” and outgrow its centralized rival.
What it means:
Hyperliquid is already the leading onchain venue for perpetual futures, controlling nearly two-thirds of the decentralized market.
Its HIP-3 upgrade also lets outside devs build new markets straight into its order book, turning it into a permissionless trading hub.
Hayes argues the funnel is simple: weak money pushes people into stablecoins, stablecoins push them into speculation, and Hyperliquid is where that speculation happens.
The model relies on big assumptions: a $10T stablecoin market, fee stability, and Hyperliquid holding its market share.
But Hayes’s call is bold: if the world saves in stablecoins, the speculation rails will be onchain. And in his view, Hyperliquid is already leading the race.
 | BLOCK: |
 | DOLO: |
 | PENGU: |
 | TRX: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks ($453M+ total):
Ethena (ENA): ~$35M unlock on September 2 (~0.65% of its market cap)
Immutable (IMX): ~$12M unlock on September 5 (~1.3% of its market cap)
Other unlocks include MOCA, IOTA and more, totaling over $453M in new supply.
Macroeconomic data calendar:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep 2): A key gauge of factory activity. Forecast: 48.9 vs previous 48.0.
JOLTS Job Openings (Sep 3): Measures labor demand. Forecast: 7.24M vs previous 7.44M.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Sep 4): Tracks private payroll growth. Forecast: 71K vs previous 104K.
Unemployment Claims (Sep 4): Weekly snapshot of labor market strength. Forecast: 229K (unchanged).
ISM Services PMI (Sep 4): Service sector health check. Forecast: 50.5 vs previous 50.1.
Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep 5): The big one. Forecast: 74K vs previous 73K.
Unemployment Rate (Sep 5): Forecast: 4.3% vs 4.2%.
Major Earnings Releases:
Wed (Sep 3): Dollar Tree, Macy’s, American Eagle, Figma.
Where does WLFI go this week? |
World Liberty Financial’s token went live today after heavy futures activity over the weekend.
Spot volume at launch will be the key driver since strong liquidity could fuel breakout trades while weak flow calls for caution.
WLFI is set to be one of the cycle’s dominant narratives although projects like Block and DOLO may still offer better risk/reward.
The focus now is to stay nimble, manage size carefully and track price action closely over the next 24 to 48 hours.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.