Trump’s $12.5T Crypto Play

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday. We’re happier going into the weekend than Bitcoin maxis hearing 401(k)s are getting crypto access.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Trump Opens the 401(k) Floodgates to Crypto

• ETH to Break $4K

• Trump-Backed USD1 Rolls Out Rewards Program

• What We’re Watching

Market: Crypto majors are green, with XRP leading after ending its legal battle. BTC holds $116,800, ETH climbs to $3,910, and SOL extends its strength at $177. Alts pop, led by PENDLE, AERO, and LINK.

Trump Opens the 401(k) Floodgates to Crypto

What’s going on:

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement plans. This means digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could soon be offered alongside traditional investments such as stocks and bonds.

The order instructs the Department of Labor to classify crypto as an eligible alternative investment in defined-contribution plans. Retirement giants like Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard will now be able to create crypto-focused funds, ETFs, and trusts for plan holders.

This is a massive potential unlock for the industry. The U.S. 401(k) market holds over $12.5 trillion in assets. Even a small 1% allocation to crypto would inject around $125 billion, double the total assets currently held by all Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined.

The near-term kicker? Once the rule is live, many investors are likely to rebalance their portfolios immediately, moving 1–10% of their total 401(k) balances into crypto.

What it means:

This could be one of the largest and stickiest inflows of capital crypto has ever seen. Unlike traders, 401(k) investors typically hold for decades, providing long-term price support.

That’s on top of ongoing weekly contributions flowing into the market, what some call the “infinite DCA.”

For crypto investors, the message is clear: positioning early could mean riding the wave, not chasing it.

ETH to Break $4K

What’s going on:

ETH is about to clear the $4K resistance, turning a major hurdle into potential support. If this level holds on a retest, momentum could accelerate toward the next target zone.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $4,000 – now key level to hold

• Major support: $3,548 – safety net if $4K fails

• Resistance: $5,000 – next major upside target

• Breakout target: $5,000+ if momentum continues

Directional Bias: Bullish above $4K

Holding $4K opens the door for continuation, with $5K in sight if volume stays strong.

What we’re waiting for:

• Successful retest of $4K as support

• Sustained volume to confirm breakout

The play now is to watch for a clean retest before loading for the potential run to $5K+.

Trump-Backed USD1 Rolls Out Rewards Program

What’s going on:

World Liberty Financial, the Trump-backed DeFi project behind the USD1 stablecoin, is launching a loyalty program that works like airline miles but for crypto users.

Through select exchange partners, users can earn points by trading USD1 pairs, holding balances, staking for yield, and using approved DeFi protocols. Gate.io is the first confirmed partner and will offer bonus points on limit orders.

The move aims to fill a gap in the market as stablecoin users rarely receive direct rewards for their activity, despite being essential to trading and DeFi. USD1 says it is fully backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries, cash, and dollar deposits via BitGo Trust.

The program follows a June airdrop of USD1 to about 85,000 WLFI token holders to boost adoption.

A launch date for the loyalty program has not yet been announced.

What it means:

Stablecoins power much of the crypto economy and now they are coming with perks.

If successful, this could turn everyday stablecoin usage into a points-earning habit while driving adoption for USD1.

With Trump’s name attached, it is likely to get plenty of attention from both the market and the media.

• Ripple to end legal battle as both parties abandon appeals

• Nasdaq-listed Bittensor treasury company Oblong stakes $8 million of token

• MetaMask integrates Layer 1 Sei

We got the pullback we talked about last week, but it’s nothing to lose sleep over.

It’s still early in the bull market, which means slow, steady gains and more time to accumulate.

Sustainable growth and rising adoption give us room to run higher for longer.

The euphoric, profit-taking stage will come eventually.

But we’re not there yet.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.