The Real Bull Run Might Just Be Starting

PLUS: ETH Long Setup

July 25th, 2025

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Friday. And we’re more pumped for the weekend than Trump yelling at Powell on live TV.

Here’s what we’re watching:

  • Market Snapshot

  • Arthur Hayes Goes Full Bull

  • Ethereum Long Setup

  • BNB Hits New ATH

  • What Are We Watching

Market: Crypto majors were a mixed bag, with ETH leading the charge while BTC and SOL lost ground, as SYRUP, ENA, and BCH lit up the altboard with strong gains.

Arthur Hayes Goes Full Bull

What’s going on:

Arthur Hayes just dropped a new blog post, and it’s basically a war cry for Ethereum bulls.

The BitMEX founder says ETH is heading to $10,000 by the end of 2025 and BTC to $250,000.

He's putting his money where his mouth is too: fully invested in ETH and high-beta alts, even dropping $1.24M on 7 CryptoPunks this week.

His thesis? We’re entering a new era of macro madness, think Cold War 2.0 meets “QE for the people.”

What it means:

Hayes thinks wartime spending, money printing, and a new generation of investors are all pointing in one direction: crypto.

His key points:

  • Govs are spending big and racking up debt.

  • Central banks will print to cover it.

  • Gen Z prefers crypto over gold.

  • Crypto’s gone mainstream as an inflation hedge.

ETH’s seeing the flow: $2B+ in a week, with ETFs and institutions piling in.

But here’s the catch: whale sell pressure looms. ETH’s unlock queue just hit a 6-month high.

The bull case is real, but $4K–$5K chop could stick… unless Hayes is right and we moon.

Strap in.

Ethereum Long Setup

What’s going on:

ETH is showing one of the strongest trend structures across majors right now. It recently swept the $2,500 area, which has been a key level all cycle, and price action since has been clean and directional.

It also fits into a broader narrative of Ethereum is becoming the go-to asset for onchain treasuries. BMNR now holds $2.1 billion worth of ETH, and other corporate buyers are lining up behind them.

From here, $4,000 looks very achievable as long as BTC doesn’t break down.

Key levels we’re watching:

  • $2,500 swept and flipped cleanly

  • $3,500 is short-term resistance but likely won’t hold long if momentum continues

  • $4,000 is the target based on relative strength vs BTC

  • Invalidation below $2,450

Directional Bias: Bullish

What we’re waiting for:

  • BTC needs to reclaim and hold $120K for altcoins to continue

  • ETH dominance is ticking up

  • SOL hasn’t been able to hold $189 to $190, making ETH the cleaner long

ETH is leading right now. Until BTC reclaims $120K or SOL stabilizes, ETH remains the best large-cap long in the market.

BNB Hits New ATH

What’s going on:

BNB just blasted to a ATH of $810, pushing its market cap to $111B.

Trading volume hit $3.29B, while futures open interest surged 23%, showing bulls are in full control.

Even CZ popped back up to celebrate, pointing to the Altcoin Season Index hitting 55/100.

A sign we might be entering “FOMO season.”

What it means:

Momentum is stacking fast:

  • Binance Chain is handling 5M+ daily transactions

  • The 2025–2026 roadmap includes key tech upgrades

  • The latest BNB burn destroyed $1.6B worth of tokens

  • And Nano Labs (treasury strategy) just bought $35M+ in BNB OTC

BNB’s deflationary design, combined with exchange dominance and altcoin hype, is turning it into one of the strongest large-cap performers.

AVAX:
VanEck’s spot AVAX ETF has a July 28 SEC deadline, which could finally wake up AVAX’s sleepy price.

ZORA:
Been ripping since launching “creator coins,” with big names like Balaji, Blockworks and Bankless joining in.

BONK:
Solana-based memecoin launchpad LetsBONK will use 1% of its platform revenue to buy back top tokens in its ecosystem.

SOL:
Joe McCann is leading a new Solana treasury firm called Accelerate, which is raising $1.5B via SPAC.

FTT:
FTX will start its third round of repayments on Sept 30 after unlocking $1.9B, bringing total approved distributions to $6.2B.

All signs still point to the bull market continuing, with a strong chance this momentum carries into early 2026.

Supportive crypto regulation (especially around stablecoins) is laying the groundwork for the next leg up.

But don’t expect a smooth ride. Dips and pullbacks are part of the game, and bigger ones will likely show up too.

Now’s the time to stay patient, avoid emotional moves, and trust the cycle to do its thing.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.