Tether’s $200M Gold Bet

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Monday and Uptober is rolling on. The rally’s alive, momentum’s building, and we’re fired up to kick off another week of green candles.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin’s Uptober Kickoff is Heating Up

• ASTER Breakout Setup

• Tether’s Gold Play Is Taking Shape

• Calendar

Market: Bitcoin hit a new ATH at 125,500 with ETH and SOL following. BNB also set a record at 1,220, while ZEC, ASTER, and MYX led movers. Gold reached a fresh high.

Bitcoin’s Uptober Kickoff is Heating Up

What’s going on:

After reclaiming $120K late week, BTC pushed through its August peak and set a new ATH during Sunday trade over $125,600. The move marks a strong weekly climb, backed by more than $2.25B in ETF inflows.

Policy news also helped fuel the rally. Digital assets were excluded from the Biden-era AMT tax proposal, potentially freeing up big buyers like Michael Saylor.

On top of that, with the U.S. government shut down, no new economic data will be released before the Fed’s late-October meeting, making a rate cut look close to certain.

And it’s not just Bitcoin. ETH jumped, BNB set fresh highs, and SOL reached $230.

What it means:

Momentum is back on Bitcoin’s side right as Uptober begins.

Institutions are piling in, ETF flows are accelerating, and major banks see plenty of upside from here. Citi is eyeing $133K by year-end, while JPMorgan pegs fair value closer to $165K.

Even a simple catch-up to gold’s performance this year would point toward $140K.

ASTER Breakout Setup

What’s going on:

ASTER is breaking out of a bull flag pattern, defying broader market consolidation. Price currently sits around $2.1, aiming for a new all-time high at $2.43 (set on September 25th).

A large whale just accumulated 2.74M ASTER (~$5M), fueling bullish momentum. If accumulation continues, it could be the catalyst for new highs.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $2.00 → recent consolidation zone, holding above keeps momentum intact

• Resistance: $2.30 → first major hurdle before new ATH attempt

• Breakout target: $2.43+ → retest of all-time highs

• Breakdown risk: Close below $1.87 weakens setup

Directional Bias: Bullish

Momentum is accelerating, but flipping $2.30 into support is critical to confirm continuation higher.

What we’re waiting for:

• Whale accumulation or spot buying above $2.00

• Volume confirmation on breakout above $2.30

• Tight risk management given fast moves near ATH levels

ASTER’s setup carries risk, but the breakout structure + whale activity makes the risk/reward compelling if key levels hold.

Tether’s Gold Play Is Taking Shape

What’s going on:

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, is teaming up with Antalpha Platform to raise at least $200M for a new digital asset treasury. The vehicle would acquire Tether’s tokenized gold (XAUT) as part of its strategy.

Antalpha is closely tied to China’s Bitmain Technologies, the top crypto mining machine maker that supplies more than 80% of the world’s rigs. The firm is already a strategic partner of Tether and earlier this year launched XAUT-backed lending and infrastructure solutions.

Currently there are nearly 250,000 XAUT tokens in circulation representing more than 7.6 tons of physical gold. Several similar treasury vehicles have launched recently to both accumulate tokens and grow their ecosystems.

What it means:

Tether is expanding beyond stablecoins into hard-asset backed products. If successful, the treasury could lock up a meaningful portion of tokenized gold, boosting demand and liquidity for XAUT.

With Bitmain involved, this effort highlights growing institutional interest in tokenized assets rather than just retail speculation.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Linea (LINEA): ~$29M unlock on Oct 10 (~6.5% of supply)

• Aptos (APT): ~$62M unlock on Oct 11 (~2.15% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Data remains limited amid the government shutdown.

• Tue (Oct 7):

  • NY Fed Inflation Expectations: Tracks where households see inflation heading. Higher expectations can pressure the Fed to stay hawkish.

  Wed (Oct 8):

  • Fed Meeting Minutes: Detailed look at the Fed’s last policy discussion. Investors watch for clues on future rate moves.

  Thu (Oct 9):

  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Powell’s tone on inflation and growth could sway markets.

  Fri (Oct 10):

  • MI Consumer Sentiment: Gauges consumer confidence about the economy. Higher sentiment = stronger spending.

  • MI Consumer Expectations: Tracks longer-term outlook for inflation and the economy.

  • September Jobs Report: The most important labor release of the month, key for the Fed’s next move.

• Abracadabra loses $1.8M in protocol's third major DeFi hack since 2024

• MetaMask's upcoming rewards program will distribute $30M in LINEA during first season

• Avalanche Treasury Co. strikes $675M merger deal to form AVAX DAT

China is finally tackling its massive debt problem by doing what Japan did a decade ago: monetizing it with huge waves of new liquidity.

The People’s Bank of China has already injected about $1 trillion this year, driving up gold prices in yuan terms and pushing government bond yields higher.

This policy shift signals a move from financial assets to real assets, with gold and commodities set to benefit as “monetary inflation” takes hold.

In short, China’s debt clean-up could restart its economy, boost global commodities, and fuel the next leg of the bull market in risk assets.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.