Solana’s $3B Secret

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday! We’re grinning like Solana maxis after this week’s price action, SOL’s breaking out and momentum looks strong.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Solana’s Setup to New ATHs

• SOL Breakout Setup

• Are We Back in an “Early Cycle” Environment?

Market: Crypto is in the green with SOL leading the pack, climbing to $239. BTC holds at $115K, ETH pushes to $4,530. Top movers include M, MYX, and PUMP with strong gains.

Solana’s Setup: Seven-Month Highs and a Path to New ATHs

What’s going on:

Solana just hit $225 (its highest price since February) and is up 25% over the past month. This move isn’t just retail hype: institutional flows are now targeting SOL the same way they did BTC and ETH earlier this year.

• Treasury Buying: Public Solana-focused companies have built significant positions throughout 2025. Forward Industries just closed a $1.65B raise to build a SOL treasury.

• ETF Pipeline: The SEC is reviewing multiple spot Solana ETF filings (including Bitwise) and staking ETFs, with potential approvals coming as early as October.

• Ecosystem Flywheel: PumpFun and Raydium are introducing buybacks funded by protocol revenue, boosting token demand.

What it means:

This is the cleanest setup SOL has had all year and it looks a lot like BTC and ETH before their major breakouts.

• Flows Are Driving: $3B+ in corporate/treasury demand + ETF approval could bring fresh institutional inflows.

• Ecosystem Strength: Solana’s apps are consistently ranking top-5 in crypto revenue, showing real usage.

• Macro Backdrop: If Bitcoin makes new ATHs in Q4 (as many expect), Solana could follow with a push to its own highs.

Risks remain: ETF demand could disappoint, and treasuries might under-allocate but this is a trade worth watching closely.

SOL Breakout Setup

What’s going on:

Solana is breaking north out of a rising wedge consolidation pattern, signaling a potential continuation move higher. Volume is strong enough to confirm the breakout, RSI is climbing but not yet overbought, and MACD has flipped bullish above the zero line, a clean momentum setup.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $221 → holding above here keeps the breakout intact

• Resistance: $240 → first major hurdle before upside opens up

• Breakout target: $270 → measured move from wedge pattern

Directional Bias: Bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Sustained closes above $221 to confirm breakout strength

• Increasing volume on the push toward $240

• Healthy consolidation pullbacks for re-entry opportunities

Are We Back in an “Early Cycle” Environment?

What’s going on:

Anna Wong, Bloomberg’s Chief Economist, thinks the US may have quietly slipped into a recession last year.

After the BLS revealed the economy produced 911,000 fewer jobs between March 2024 and March 2025 than first reported, Wong argues the business cycle likely peaked around April 2024, bottomed in early 2025, and is now turning higher.

Markets seem to back up her view. The S&P 500 sold off 21% between February and April before trading flat for nearly a year.

CEO confidence, earnings revisions, and global growth expectations all hit their lows earlier this year and are now climbing. Even though ISM manufacturing has stayed below 50, other indicators suggest a reset has already happened and a new cycle may be underway.

What it means:

If we really are in the early phase of a new business cycle, this is historically the most powerful period for risk assets.

Liquidity is improving, investors are still underweight, and the setup favors strong equity and crypto performance well into 2026 or 2027.

Rather than late-cycle caution, this may be the start of one of the most unloved bull markets in recent memory.

• Solana treasury firm BIT Mining nearly doubles holdings

• Figure IPO opens at $36 per share

• BlackRock working on tokenizing funds tied to real-world assets

Markets are still quiet, with BTC stuck between 105K and 115K and most alts still just chopping.

ETH has been the lone bright spot, showing some strength while everything else drifts.

The real fireworks likely start when BTC breaks into new all-time highs.

That’s the move that could pull sidelined investors back in and send fresh capital flooding into crypto.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.