Shutdown Fears, Market Cheers

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s only Wednesday and traders are already pricing in Fed cuts like it’s happy hour.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Gov Shutdown Drama Turns Real

• HYPE 50-day EMA Setup

• SWIFT Embraces Blockchain

Market: Crypto is leading the charge with Bitcoin back above $117K, Ethereum pushing past $4.3K, and Solana showing the strongest gains at $220. Stocks, meanwhile, are taking a breather with the S&P 500 slightly in the red.

Gov Shutdown Drama Turns Real

What’s going on:

The U.S. Government officially shut down after Congress failed to approve a new spending bill by the October 1 deadline.

That means hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed, agencies are frozen, and most importantly for markets, critical economic data releases are suspended.

This isn’t the first shutdown.

In the past 20 years, there were three: 2013 (16 days), 2018 (3 days), and 2018–19 (35 days). In each case, the S&P 500 actually rose, while gold and bitcoin traded more on broader macro mood than politics.

This time, the real risk is the data blackout.

Key data suspended during the shutdown:

1. Jobless claims (Labor Department)

2. Nonfarm payrolls (BLS)

3. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (BLS)

4. Retail sales, factory orders, housing starts, trade data (Census and BEA)

5. Employment Trends Index (Conference Board)

6. GDP reports (BEA)

7. New home sales and construction permits (Census Bureau)

8. Export and import trade data (Census and Commerce)

What it means:

The Fed’s next meeting is four weeks away. With no fresh jobs or inflation reports, officials will be flying blind going into October 28–29.

Historically, the Fed tends to lean more dovish during shutdowns, choosing easier policy when the data is missing. That could become a hidden tailwind for risk assets if the freeze drags on.

For now, expect noisy headlines and political theater. Markets are more likely to trade on liquidity, earnings, and Fed expectations than on Washington drama.

HYPE 50-day EMA Setup

What’s going on:

HYPE is consolidating around its 50-day EMA. After hitting a fresh ATH near $59 a couple of weeks ago, it retraced sharply to $39 amid perps DEX competition from ASTER.

The coin bounced, but was rejected at the EMA, making it the critical level to watch.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $39 → recent low and strong bounce point

• Resistance: $50 → first key hurdle before upside continuation

• Breakout target: $55–$60 if $50 is reclaimed

• Breakdown risk: Close below $39 puts ATH retrace in play

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

A sustained hold above the 50-day EMA would shift momentum back in favor of bulls. Failure to reclaim leaves risk of rollover toward $39.

What we’re waiting for:

• Price to sustain above the 50-day EMA

• Confirmation of breakout through $50

HYPE isn’t without risk, but the structure looks attractive if bulls defend the EMA and push through $50 resistance.

SWIFT Embraces Blockchain

What’s going on:

SWIFT, the backbone of international payments, is rolling out a blockchain-based ledger with Consensys. The prototype aims to make cross-border transfers instant and 24/7.

More than 30 banks, including Citi, Bank of America, and NatWest, are already involved. The system will log and validate payments, run rules via smart contracts, and connect seamlessly with both legacy rails and new networks.

It hasn’t been confirmed yet whether it plugs into Ethereum mainnet or Consensys’s own Linea chain.

What it means:

This is a major nod from TradFi that blockchain is the better option for payments.

If SWIFT pulls it off, tokenized money could move as easily as an email: compliant, interoperable, and at lower cost.

Stablecoins and RWAs stand to gain the most. Ethereum and Linea are in the spotlight too, depending on which chain becomes the backbone.

TradFi adoption is no longer a question of if, it’s happening week by week.

• Robinhood eyes overseas prediction market launch

• Solana-centric Upexi taps SOL Big Brain for advisory committee alongside Arthur Hayes

• Bitwise CIO says Tether’s growth trajectory could rival world’s most profitable companies

Crypto is going after some of the biggest markets in the world, from payments to real estate to global money.

That is why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even Tether can reach massive valuations even if they look very different from Amazon or SpaceX.

The upside is enormous but most projects will fail while a few could change everything.

Diversification is key because the real question is not which coin wins but whether crypto will matter more in five years.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.