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- Pullbacks Are Noise. The Trend Is Up
Pullbacks Are Noise. The Trend Is Up
PLUS: The FOMC Playbook
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Ray Dalio just said 15% in Bitcoin. Cute. We’ve been more bullish than that since Blockbuster was still around.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Dalio’s 15% Bitcoin Allocation Is Turning Heads
FOMC Scenarios: What to Expect and How to React
Ethena Is On Fire
What Are We Watching
Market: Crypto majors slipped ahead of the FOMC, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all in the red, while FORM, PUMP, and TON led on strength.
Meanwhile, ETH ETFs are outpacing BTC ETFs in weekly flows ($284M vs $237M), boosted by the SEC’s approval of in-kind redemptions for both.
Dalio’s 15% Bitcoin Allocation Is Turning Heads
What’s going on:
Ray Dalio just shook up the crypto world with his boldest call yet.
The billionaire Bridgewater founder now believes investors should allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. A massive shift from his cautious tone in recent years.
He shared the view in a Bloomberg interview, calling Bitcoin a “storehold of wealth” fit for the next generation.
Here’s why he’s turning so bullish:
Out-of-control U.S. debt has him worried about long-term dollar strength
Fiat trust is fading as central banks keep printing
Geopolitical tensions make neutral assets like BTC more attractive
What it means:
Dalio has a track record for calling big macro shifts early. This time he’s saying traditional portfolios won’t survive the next decade without crypto.
A 15% allocation might sound high, but it reflects a new kind of risk management. Not owning Bitcoin may become the bigger risk.
With macro pressures rising and BTC outperforming everything, Dalio’s message is clear.
“We are at the stage where money is being printed to pay for debt. That’s a very dangerous cycle.”
FOMC Scenarios: What to Expect and How to React
What’s going on:
Markets are bracing for the July 30 FOMC decision.
While a rate hold is widely expected, Powell’s tone and forward guidance will set the stage for the next leg in crypto.
Most traders are reducing risk ahead of the decision. The real action starts post-2:00 PM ET, with potential fireworks based on Powell’s press conference.
Scenario 1: Hold + Dovish Guidance
Probability: High (~97%)
What to look for: Hints at a September cut, data-dependent language, no panic on inflation or tariffs.
Market reaction: BTC tests $120K–$122K. Altcoin rotation if BTC dominance dips.
How to trade it: Stay long on strong setups. Look for continuation plays like ETH and SOL if momentum picks up.
Scenario 2: Hold + Hawkish Guidance
Probability: Medium (~20–30%)
What to look for: Powell flags inflation or job strength, downplays cuts, mentions tariff risks.
Market reaction: BTC pulls back to $115K–$116K. Correction risk rises if support breaks.
How to trade it: Be cautious. Consider trimming risk or using tight stops until the market stabilizes.
Scenario 3: Surprise 25bps Cut
Probability: Low (~3%)
What to look for: Powell confirms full easing path amid deteriorating data.
Market reaction: BTC spikes to $125K+. Alt season could ignite fast.
How to trade it: Go risk-on fast. Look for breakout setups, especially on high beta altcoins (like bluechip memes).
Scenario 4: No Change + Mixed/Dissent
Probability: Low–Medium
What to look for: Powell cautious but signals internal debate over future cuts.
Market reaction: BTC holds ~$118K, market moves sideways.
How to trade it: Patience. Let the dust settle. Range-trading strategies or short-term scalps could outperform.
TL;DR
Biggest upside potential? A surprise cut.
Biggest risk? Hawkish tone with no sign of September cuts.
Most likely outcome? Neutral to dovish hold → modest upside.
Powell speaks at 2:30 PM ET. That’s when the real game begins.
Ethena Is On Fire
What’s going on:
Ethena just hit a major growth milestone.
Its stablecoin USDe broke past $7.5B in supply, unlocking 4 out of 5 requirements for ENA stakers to earn revenue. The final step? A big centralized exchange (CEX) listing for USDe.
That’s not the only news.
Ethena also locked in a $360M fundraise and merger, with $260M set aside to buy back ENA on the open market over the next 6 weeks.
That’s about $5M of daily buy pressure, equal to 8% of ENA’s total supply.
To top it off, Ethena partnered with Anchorage Digital to bring its stablecoin USDtb fully into U.S. compliance under the new Genius Act.
USDtb already has a $1.5B market cap.
What it means:
Ethena is creating one of the strongest feedback loops in crypto right now.
Here’s the playbook:
Grow USDe → check
Start rewarding ENA stakers → almost there
Use $260M to buy back ENA → in motion
Clean up VC token overhangs → being fixed
Bring stablecoins into compliance → already happening
Ethena is locking up supply, building demand, and positioning ENA as a yield-bearing token with real-world adoption.
If that final exchange listing lands soon, stakers could start earning, and ENA could enter a whole new phase of value accrual.
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How much of your portfolio is in BTC? |
We’ve officially entered crypto summer, a rare moment where macro tailwinds, regulatory clarity, and investor sentiment all align.
The playbook now is simple: stay allocated, avoid trying to outsmart short-term pullbacks, and don’t chase hype late in the cycle.
Ethereum and Bitcoin remain the foundation, while selective alt exposure can work if done early and with high conviction.
Zoom out, stay patient, and remember the biggest gains often come from doing less, not more.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.