Plasma’s $2B Stablecoin Bet

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Airdrop season is finally here, and the crypto casino is about to get busy.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Plasma Launches Stablecoin Neobank Ahead of Mainnet

• ETH Swing Long Setup

• Airdrop SZN Is Almost Here

• This Week’s Calendar

Market: Crypto took a hit overnight (ETH and SOL led the drop) while BTC held up slightly better at -2%. Risk assets are clearly under pressure, and alts are feeling it the most.

Plasma Launches Stablecoin Neobank Ahead of Mainnet

What’s going on:

Plasma, the Bitfinex-backed L1, just announced Plasma One → the first neobank built natively for stablecoins.

The launch comes just days before Plasma’s mainnet beta (Sept. 25) and its XPL token generation event.

At launch, Plasma One will include:

• Zero-fee USDT transfers within Plasma

• Instant virtual cards with rewards for spending

• Better cash-out options for users in underserved markets

Plasma says its goal is to make stablecoin usage as seamless as cash, bundling infrastructure with a polished front-end experience.

What it means:

Stablecoin adoption is booming, with supply near $280B and growing. Plasma is betting that an easy-to-use, full-stack platform will be the on-ramp for the next wave of users.

With ~$2B in stablecoin liquidity and 100+ DeFi integrations live on day one, plus a token launch (XPL) valued between $4.5B–$7.6B FDV in pre-markets, Plasma is shaping up to be one of Q4’s biggest launches.

If it works, this could be a major unlock for stablecoin payments and DeFi adoption globally.

ETH Swing Long Setup

What’s going on:

Ethereum is back at a major support zone, sitting right on the 1D EMA50, a key confluence level for bulls.

This is a DCA-friendly area, but patience is key, price may take time to base before any upside move.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Entry Range: $4,050 – $4,200 → preferred DCA zone

• DCA Plan:

  • 25% at current price

  • 25% at $4,200

  • 25% at $4,100

  • 25% at $4,060

• Targets: $4,400 → $4,500 → $4,700

• Stop Loss: $3,980 (invalidate if closed below)

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Gradual accumulation within the DCA range

• Local bottom confirmation before momentum kicks in

• Risk management: keep size appropriate, given ETH’s volatility

ETH isn’t without risk, but with confluence stacking (support + EMA50), this is a favorable swing setup if executed with discipline.

Airdrop SZN Is Almost Here

What’s going on:

The long-awaited MetaMask token is officially coming. Co-founder Joe Lubin confirmed it, saying it’s dropping “very soon.”

This is the first time we’ve had formal confirmation, and it adds to a growing list of protocols preparing for token launches and airdrops.

Here’s what’s lined up:

• MetaMask (MASK): Confirmed, timing unknown, markets only price a 3% chance for September.

• OpenSea (SEA): In the “final phase” of pre-TGE rewards, token details coming in early October.

• Base: Jesse Pollak admitted a native token is on the roadmap, but still early.

• Pump Fun (PUMP): Token already live, airdrop expected in Q4 2024 (47% distribution by EOY 2025).

• Meteora (MET): October TGE likely based on official materials.

• Polymarket (POLY): Token rumors are back, with a funding round valuing the company near $10B.

What it means:

Airdrop season is about to heat up and free money usually stays in the crypto casino.

Expect activity to pick up across Solana (MET & PUMP), NFTs (SEA), and Ethereum (MASK, POLY) as users rush to qualify.

And the timing couldn’t be better: crypto majors are near ATHs, rate cuts just started, ETFs are coming online, and risk-on sentiment is returning.

Q4 could be explosive. Time to farm, qualify, and stack your favorite altcoins.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Venom (VENOM): ~$8.5M unlock on Sept 25 (~2.3% of supply)

• Moca Network(MOCA): ~$170K unlock on Sept 26 (~0.06% of supply)

• Jupiter (JUP): ~$27M unlock on Sept 28 (~1.8% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

• Tue (Sep 23):

  • PMI: How healthy the manufacturing and services economy is. Strong PMI = growth, weak PMI = slowdown.

  • Powell Speaks: The Fed Chair talks about the economy and rates.

• Thu (Sep 25):

  • US Q2 2025 GDP: Measures how fast the economy is growing. Higher GDP = strong economy.

  • Unemployment claims: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance → Fed looking at jobs.

• Fri (Sep 18):

  • PCE Price Index: The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge → shows if prices are rising too fast.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Thu (Sep 25): Accenture, Costco

• Low-risk DeFi, not memecoins, can best sustain Ethereum's economy, co-founder Vitalik Buterin says

• Metaplanet buys $632M in BTC, largest acquisition to date

• Crypto custodian BitGo reveals 2025 revenue surge in US IPO filing

The Fed may have cut rates, but it’s taking a hawkish stance on liquidity prioritizing balance sheet reduction and signaling the end of Fed-driven QE.

Liquidity is tightening in the short term, repo markets are showing stress, and higher yields could force banks to unwind leveraged trades like the Treasury basis trade.

Policymakers are shifting toward “Treasury QE,” using short-term bill issuance to suppress yields and redirect liquidity into the real economy.

This shift could boost stablecoin adoption, but it means less fuel for financial markets and a slower, grindy bull market rather than an explosive one.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.