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Crypto Shaken, Not Stirred
PLUS: BTC Nears Key Support
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Blood in the streets? Perfect. We’re the ones calmly filling our carts while everyone else panic dumps.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto ETF Outflows Accelerate as Bitcoin Slips
Bitcoin Setup
Crypto Adoption Is Going Parabolic
Market: Crypto is red with BTC at $109K down 2.3%, ETH at $3.9K down 1.9% and SOL at $195 down 3.7%. Stocks are flat with the S&P 500 slightly green.
Crypto ETF Outflows Accelerate as Bitcoin Slips
What’s going on:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw $253M of outflows on Thursday, bringing weekly outflows to nearly $480M.
BTC fell below $109K (a four-week low) and traders are watching to see if $107.5K holds, which was the bottom of this month’s earlier correction.
BlackRock’s IBIT was the only fund to record inflows with $78M added, while Fidelity, Bitwise, ARK 21Shares, Franklin, VanEck, and Grayscale all posted outflows.
Despite the cooling, Bitcoin ETFs still have $57B in total inflows since launch and BlackRock hasn’t seen a single outflow day in three weeks.
ETH ETFs also bled $251M on Thursday, bringing weekly outflows to $547M as ETH dropped double digits.
But there was a silver lining: the SEC met with VanEck to discuss ETF tokenization, a potential tailwind for Ethereum given its role as the standard for tokenized assets.
What it means:
This is a shakeout period for crypto ETFs as investors de-risk ahead of key macro data.
If $107.5K holds, Bitcoin could be setting up a strong Q4 bounce.
Meanwhile, ETF tokenization talks could open a new narrative for ETH as real-world assets continue to move onchain.
Bitcoin Setup
What’s going on:
Bitcoin is approaching $107K, a key demand zone where buyers have historically stepped in.
With fear running high, this level could offer one of the best risk/reward spots of the quarter if it holds.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $107K → strong buy zone
Resistance: $118K → first major hurdle for a bullish reversal
Directional Bias: Neutral-to-bullish
What we’re waiting for:
Price to tag $107K and show a strong reaction
Volume confirmation to validate the bounce
A move back above $118K to confirm momentum shift
Bitcoin is in a fear-driven market, but if $107K holds, it could be the perfect spot to position for the next leg up.
Crypto Adoption Is Going Parabolic
What’s going on:
Crypto adoption is officially outpacing the early internet. The number of active wallet addresses is growing faster than IP address adoption did in the 90s.
Even after adjusting for the fact that one person can own multiple wallets (just like we all have multiple email addresses) the growth curve is still ahead of where the internet was at this stage.
This means we’re not just speculating: crypto’s user base is genuinely expanding at record speed.
What it means:
We’re still early. Every cycle, more people are coming onchain, more capital is flowing in, and the network effect is compounding.
Translation: this market has way more room to grow and right now’s a great time to be positioning for the next wave of adoption.
 | SOL: |
 | ASTER: |
 | HYPE: |
 | RON: |
How are you playing BTC at $107K? |
We are once again at that point where patience is key and the setup for the next big move is here.
Macro signals, TA, and risk assets all point to Q4 being the start of another leg up for Bitcoin and crypto.
The recent Treasury General Account (TGA) refill, which is basically the government topping up its cash balance and temporarily draining market liquidity, is now behind us and clears the way for risk assets.
This is the time to stay allocated, stay calm, and ride the wave when it comes.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.