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Cash Locked and Loaded
PLUS: Q4 Breakout Mode
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Perp DEX wars are turning into a cage match: volume’s exploding, charts are breaking out, and everyone’s fighting for the crown.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Cash is King (Again)
AVAX Monthly Breakout Setup
Tether Eyes $500B Valuation
Market: BTC holds $113K, ETH cools off, and SOL drops over 3% as markets take a breather.
Cash is King (Again)
What’s going on:
Many investors have historically stayed almost fully allocated to BTC and alts, keeping less than 10% of their portfolio in cash. This approach worked well in 2021 when the entire market rallied together, allowing aggressive rotations with minimal cash on hand.
Today, the landscape is very different. Return dispersion within crypto is at record highs, with some tokens surging while others collapse. Maintaining full exposure at all times is no longer as effective.
Holding more cash now provides greater flexibility. It allows investors to deploy into promising tokens early, capture the bulk of returns, and then rotate back into cash as prices climb. It also encourages constant evaluation of risk and reward rather than a set-and-forget mentality.
Recent examples highlight this point:
The next wave of token launches is approaching quickly. XPL goes live Thursday, with projects like Monad, MegaETH, and Fogo expected later this year. Each will have unique dynamics, including public sales, airdrops, or controlled supply, making preparation and cash allocation crucial.
What it means:
Maintaining cash positions is a strategic decision, not a bearish one. It allows strong participation in early phases of token launches, reduces the risk of selling existing assets at lows, and supports clear decision-making.
With dozens of tokens and chains expected to launch over the coming months, the advantage will go to investors who plan rotations in advance. The market consistently rewards those who act decisively rather than hesitate once price action begins.
AVAX Monthly Breakout Setup
What’s going on:
AVAX is flirting with a breakout from a four-year downtrend on the monthly chart.
Price is nudging past the long-term resistance line, while the MACD is curling upwards, a classic early bullish signal.
On lower timeframes, AVAX has already shown strength by recovering sharply from the weekend crash, snapping right back to the $35 zone almost instantly.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $35 → recent reclaim level, needs to hold
Resistance: $40 → long-term trendline breakout confirmation
Breakout target: $55 → December 2024 high
Secondary target: $65 if momentum persists and $55 acts as support
Breakdown risk: Lose $30 and this setup is off the table
Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish
Momentum is improving across multiple timeframes, but bulls still need a clean breakout on the monthly close to confirm the move.
What we’re waiting for:
Monthly close above the downtrend line
Volume confirmation to support the breakout
Strength in broader crypto markets to carry AVAX higher
AVAX looks primed for a big move if conditions stay risk-on, the setup offers clear invalidation and strong upside into Q4.
Tether Eyes $500B Valuation
What’s going on:
Tether is reportedly in talks to raise as much as $20B at a jaw-dropping $500B valuation, according to Bloomberg.
That would make the world’s largest stablecoin issuer one of the most valuable private companies on the planet, right up there with SpaceX and OpenAI.
Cantor Fitzgerald, a current shareholder (5% stake), is said to be advising the deal. If the raise goes through, Cantor’s stake could jump from $600M to $25B in value.
The potential deal would involve new equity, not existing investors cashing out, and is targeting 3% of the company.
What it means:
Tether already dominates the stablecoin market with $172B USDT in circulation and posted $4.9B in net profit last quarter, making it arguably one of the most profitable firms in crypto.
A $500B valuation would not only solidify Tether as the king of stablecoins but also put it in a league of global corporate giants, dwarfing rival Circle’s $30B market cap.
If this deal closes, it could be a major credibility boost for the entire stablecoin sector and signal that Wall Street is officially ready to back crypto’s biggest cash printer.
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Tether wants a $500B valuation 🤯 What’s the vibe? |
Big picture: macro conditions are turning risk-on as liquidity picks up and the dollar softens. Q4 could set the stage for one of the strongest runs we have seen in this cycle.
This is also when discipline matters most. Stay sized appropriately, zoom out, and avoid getting chopped up by volatility.
The next few months could be portfolio-defining for patient investors who focus on positioning over prediction.
Stay sharp, stay curious, and keep stacking conviction because the real moves might just be getting started.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.