Aster Just Ripped 400%

Welcome back to The Warmup.

The Fed just delivered its first rate cut of 2025 and markets are waking up to that shift, with sentiment and momentum suddenly looking more constructive.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Fed Cuts Rates as Labor Market Concerns Take Center Stage

• ETH Triangle Setup

• Aster Launch Goes Parabolic

Market: Crypto majors are pulling back after the post-FOMC rally. Aster stole the show while IMX and NEAR followed with solid upside.

Fed Cuts Rates as Labor Market Concerns Take Center Stage

What’s going on:

The Fed delivered its widely anticipated 25bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting and this one came with a strong tilt.

• The statement showed a clear shift: the Fed is now more focused on the labor market than inflation.

• Despite higher GDP, lower unemployment forecasts, and hotter inflation projections for 2026, the Fed is signaling more cuts ahead.

• Bitcoin dominance is dropping and ETH is starting to move, this could be fuel for the next leg higher if risk appetite returns.

What it means:

The Fed is cutting into a decent economy, a classic “don’t fight the Fed” setup. If ETH clears $4,700 and BTC breaks out $120k, we could see a wave of capital flow into alts.

Great time to be watching ETH and quality altcoin setups closely.

ETH Triangle Setup

What’s going on:

ETH is consolidating inside a triangle pattern, with MACD and RSI sitting in neutral territory suggesting price is coiling before a bigger move.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $4,350 – ideal spot for limit longs at triangle support

• Deeper support: $4,200 – bottom of the broader range for more aggressive bids

• Breakout trigger: $4,700 – market longs on a confirmed breakout

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

ETH is offering flexibility here, traders can position for a pullback with well-placed bids, or wait for confirmation and ride the breakout.

What we’re waiting for:

• Pullback into $4,350 or $4,200 with strong buyer response

• Breakout above $4,700 with volume confirmation

• MACD/RSI bullish support for a continuation

ETH’s consolidation won’t last forever, whichever direction breaks first should set the tone for the next big move.

Aster Launch Goes Parabolic

What’s going on:

Aster just delivered one of the wildest launches of the year. The token exploded 400% in its first 24 hours (jumping from $0.0089 to $0.45) despite unlocking 704M tokens via airdrop.

Instead of the usual post-airdrop dump, buyers stepped in aggressively.

Momentum got an extra boost when former Binance CEO CZ posted on X praising the project, which sent trading volume surging to over $324M.

Backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), Aster is positioning itself as Binance’s big bet to rival Hyperliquid, with a market cap of $753M.

Still well below Hyperliquid’s.

What it means:

This is quickly becoming one of the hottest narrative trades in crypto.

Strong volume confirms real demand, and with valuations still lagging competitors, there could be room for more upside if momentum continues.

But price discovery means volatility will stay extreme, and corrections can be sharp.

If you’re watching for the next big perp DEX play, Aster just claimed the spotlight.

• Coinbase now lets users lend USDC onchain with current yields up to 10.8%

• PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin expands to Tron

• Kalshi surges past Polymarket in volume

The Fed just cut rates again, and the setup feels a lot like last September.

The big difference now is that Trump is in office and actively delivering on his pro-crypto promises.

Crypto’s total market cap is back above $4T, and Bitcoin still hasn’t broken to new highs.

Once it does, we could see fresh inflows and the start of the next alt season. We think there’s still plenty of upside left, so patience is key.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.